* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 85 84 83 74 64 59 68 74 78 79 73 71 67 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 96 95 94 93 84 74 69 78 84 88 89 83 81 77 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 86 84 81 70 58 51 44 40 39 38 38 39 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 20 23 33 45 59 44 30 16 16 17 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 5 6 4 8 6 -1 8 0 1 1 0 5 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 251 248 245 248 260 268 269 262 232 229 249 252 250 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.1 28.1 27.6 25.8 23.7 17.8 11.1 10.3 10.9 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 149 141 142 136 119 105 82 72 70 70 70 68 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.3 -48.9 -48.5 -50.0 -51.4 -52.5 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 55 54 47 44 54 62 68 66 69 73 78 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 30 31 29 28 27 31 33 31 30 25 20 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 36 12 3 51 90 108 148 157 223 189 177 206 197 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 83 66 73 74 119 121 141 104 99 44 41 52 55 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 16 15 17 28 45 66 221 145 -9 -43 0 30 7 -31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -17 150 273 449 660 879 765 341 419 1020 1139 766 452 387 381 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.3 23.6 25.4 27.1 31.7 37.4 43.6 49.1 52.6 54.7 56.9 59.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 74.9 74.0 72.8 71.5 67.5 61.4 54.4 47.3 39.9 31.9 23.9 16.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 18 21 25 34 39 39 33 27 25 24 19 12 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 52 43 29 16 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -16. -19. -23. -23. -25. -24. -22. -21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -21. -16. -8. -3. 0. 4. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -3. 2. 5. 1. -2. -10. -17. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -7. -16. -26. -31. -22. -16. -12. -11. -17. -19. -23. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.9 75.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.1% 5.9% 4.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 7.2% 3.0% 1.3% 1.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 17( 17) 14( 29) 9( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 96 95 94 93 84 74 69 78 84 88 89 83 81 77 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 87 86 77 67 62 71 77 81 82 76 74 70 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 84 75 65 60 69 75 79 80 74 72 68 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 70 60 55 64 70 74 75 69 67 63 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 52 47 56 62 66 67 61 59 55 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 96 87 81 78 71 61 56 65 71 75 76 70 68 64 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 96 95 86 80 76 66 61 70 76 80 81 75 73 69 DIS DIS