* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 78 76 65 58 60 68 75 76 73 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 78 76 65 58 60 68 75 76 73 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 79 77 73 62 53 47 43 40 37 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 20 26 33 49 45 46 24 10 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 9 6 5 12 -1 6 2 -3 0 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 245 237 250 250 265 265 270 244 217 227 272 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.2 27.5 26.9 24.6 22.9 11.4 12.6 9.5 10.5 11.8 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 143 135 129 110 100 73 72 68 69 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -48.8 -48.3 -48.9 -49.8 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 55 53 51 42 49 61 72 73 82 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 33 34 29 28 29 33 34 31 27 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 32 0 11 40 80 126 138 171 189 241 247 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 79 54 71 95 112 111 152 76 71 45 48 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 19 12 20 23 46 119 211 104 -50 -56 -3 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 279 411 648 850 929 583 90 622 1097 1067 707 434 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.6 25.0 27.1 29.2 34.3 40.3 46.3 51.3 54.3 55.7 57.5 60.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.3 74.3 73.4 71.8 70.3 65.0 58.7 52.0 45.3 39.2 32.9 24.4 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 21 25 30 36 39 36 28 21 22 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 44 35 17 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -11. -12. -14. -12. -13. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -17. -16. -11. -4. -0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 3. -2. -4. -4. 0. 1. -5. -12. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -15. -22. -20. -12. -5. -4. -7. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.1 75.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 11.8% 8.1% 6.0% 4.8% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.8% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.4% 4.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 2( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 78 78 76 65 58 60 68 75 76 73 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 76 65 58 60 68 75 76 73 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 74 63 56 58 66 73 74 71 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 57 50 52 60 67 68 65 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT