* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 74 69 59 60 69 73 75 77 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 74 69 59 60 69 73 75 77 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 70 65 57 52 46 42 39 37 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 25 27 32 40 51 36 29 11 6 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 5 5 7 4 1 4 -1 0 -4 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 236 248 256 263 258 266 259 236 208 232 254 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.5 26.8 25.5 23.5 16.6 7.4 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 135 128 117 103 79 71 69 66 65 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -49.0 -49.1 -48.7 -48.6 -49.2 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.5 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 54 55 52 44 41 55 66 73 80 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 30 28 27 30 32 32 31 27 23 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 6 14 39 53 118 158 237 189 235 280 271 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 79 97 104 102 113 154 115 83 33 55 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 17 20 30 36 59 200 209 28 -30 -14 -4 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 279 426 607 838 822 717 343 282 921 1101 991 895 696 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 25.3 27.1 29.4 31.6 37.6 43.8 49.4 54.3 56.2 55.8 56.2 58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.8 73.5 72.3 70.3 68.3 62.2 55.6 49.3 41.9 35.4 30.5 28.0 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 25 28 34 39 37 35 27 16 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 33 18 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -12. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -17. -15. -8. -2. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -1. 0. 0. -3. -9. -16. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 12. 9. 8. 7. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -11. -20. -20. -11. -7. -5. -3. -8. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 23.5 74.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 11.3% 7.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.4% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.6% 4.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 3( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 77 74 69 59 60 69 73 75 77 72 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 75 70 60 61 70 74 76 78 73 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 68 58 59 68 72 74 76 71 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 55 56 65 69 71 73 68 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT