* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 83 79 73 63 63 69 71 69 65 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 83 79 73 63 63 69 71 69 65 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 82 77 70 60 52 45 41 36 34 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 23 32 31 44 45 41 21 10 13 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 7 8 13 4 5 3 0 0 -5 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 253 257 260 267 261 265 240 224 229 270 261 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.2 25.6 24.7 22.8 9.8 11.1 9.7 10.5 11.1 11.7 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 133 118 111 100 72 70 68 68 66 60 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -47.4 -46.3 -47.8 -49.0 -49.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 50 53 48 38 46 60 74 78 80 79 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 31 31 30 31 33 35 35 31 24 19 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 49 64 94 119 164 221 241 294 294 268 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 93 100 116 118 107 182 99 90 59 37 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 19 25 37 30 121 207 90 -37 -35 -14 -13 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 380 591 820 833 899 561 43 586 1036 1125 766 674 800 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 26.9 28.8 31.6 34.4 40.4 47.0 51.8 53.4 55.2 57.2 57.8 56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.9 72.3 70.8 68.1 65.5 59.1 52.3 46.2 40.1 33.2 26.7 24.4 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 30 36 38 40 36 25 21 21 14 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 18 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 17 CX,CY: 9/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -17. -19. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -20. -19. -15. -7. -1. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 1. -6. -16. -25. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -12. -22. -22. -16. -14. -16. -20. -27. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 24.9 73.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.09 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.61 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 12.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 4.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 6.3% 2.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 4( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 83 79 73 63 63 69 71 69 65 58 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 82 78 72 62 62 68 70 68 64 57 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 77 71 61 61 67 69 67 63 56 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 69 59 59 65 67 65 61 54 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 56 56 62 64 62 58 51 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 63 63 69 71 69 65 58 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 83 74 68 64 64 70 72 70 66 59 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS