* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 83 76 69 59 61 66 66 64 64 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 83 76 69 59 61 66 66 64 64 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 84 77 70 58 49 44 40 37 37 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 31 33 40 49 37 32 17 9 7 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 9 12 7 -1 7 2 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 260 264 258 257 265 253 233 214 212 197 194 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 25.5 24.7 23.6 16.6 7.9 10.1 9.8 10.6 11.5 12.0 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 117 111 104 80 70 68 67 67 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -49.2 -46.9 -47.6 -48.0 -48.6 -50.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.6 3.4 3.4 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 51 49 44 39 56 69 76 76 75 73 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 31 30 30 32 34 32 28 24 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 57 79 98 128 126 214 229 259 266 273 233 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 101 115 114 101 164 100 97 43 53 47 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 33 30 29 74 131 164 53 -54 -40 -25 -30 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 836 806 887 726 343 320 805 1169 1086 926 718 412 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 29.2 31.6 34.5 37.4 43.8 49.7 52.9 54.6 55.3 55.7 57.2 59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.7 70.6 68.5 65.6 62.6 55.7 48.9 43.5 38.1 32.2 26.5 22.7 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 31 34 38 40 40 30 21 18 17 14 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 9 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 21 CX,CY: 11/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. -24. -26. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -24. -25. -21. -16. -8. -0. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -6. -13. -20. -26. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 12. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -14. -21. -31. -29. -24. -24. -26. -26. -30. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.7 72.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 566.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 3( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 83 76 69 59 61 66 66 64 64 60 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 77 70 60 62 67 67 65 65 61 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 72 62 64 69 69 67 67 63 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 63 65 70 70 68 68 64 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 63 68 68 66 66 62 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 65 67 72 72 70 70 66 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 83 74 68 64 66 71 71 69 69 65 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS