* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/30/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 75 67 61 61 67 66 63 64 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 75 67 61 61 67 66 63 64 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 87 81 74 68 56 48 43 39 37 37 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 33 44 51 47 41 28 14 10 9 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 11 2 -3 2 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 265 260 256 257 263 240 219 204 194 182 199 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 25.8 24.8 23.8 22.4 11.2 11.7 9.1 10.4 11.0 11.7 11.5 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 120 112 105 97 73 70 67 67 67 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -48.0 -47.3 -48.0 -48.6 -49.6 -51.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.8 1.9 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 49 44 37 46 64 74 70 66 68 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 31 30 30 33 33 34 30 26 23 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 75 90 135 130 150 232 272 274 289 262 208 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 130 131 120 133 138 119 79 47 35 39 42 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 34 21 11 56 138 158 62 -19 -72 -56 -43 -11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 817 829 909 726 535 50 595 1006 1201 959 732 446 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 31.6 34.3 37.5 40.6 46.7 51.6 54.1 54.8 55.8 57.3 59.5 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.9 68.2 65.5 62.4 59.3 52.3 45.9 40.6 34.4 29.1 24.8 20.9 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 35 38 40 40 36 26 19 17 15 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 27 CX,CY: 15/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -26. -26. -27. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -19. -26. -27. -22. -16. -7. 0. 5. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. -2. -1. -6. -14. -19. -25. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 11. 8. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -15. -23. -29. -29. -23. -24. -27. -26. -30. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.9 70.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 573.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/30/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 3( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 82 75 67 61 61 67 66 63 64 60 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 77 69 63 63 69 68 65 66 62 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 71 65 65 71 70 67 68 64 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 66 66 72 71 68 69 65 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 65 71 70 67 68 64 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 68 68 74 73 70 71 67 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT