* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/31/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 60 58 55 57 56 57 55 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 68 60 58 55 57 56 57 55 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 68 62 55 50 43 37 34 33 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 50 53 46 42 33 13 3 3 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 5 8 0 -3 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 259 263 266 255 226 204 213 252 252 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 22.6 19.8 12.2 9.7 9.5 10.0 10.9 11.9 11.6 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 98 87 74 71 68 67 67 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -49.8 -47.3 -47.3 -48.5 -49.3 -50.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.8 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 39 46 56 61 69 70 70 68 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 29 32 33 36 30 27 22 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 92 104 110 159 242 277 276 282 250 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 148 142 110 78 98 55 36 41 34 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 35 119 144 162 119 0 -58 -42 -25 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 730 564 369 110 362 905 1231 916 698 466 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 40.5 43.5 46.4 49.2 53.1 55.0 56.3 57.5 59.2 61.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 58.6 55.2 51.6 48.1 42.0 35.9 29.5 23.7 18.9 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 41 40 39 38 32 24 20 18 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 42 CX,CY: 27/ 32 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -14. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -13. -8. -4. 3. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. -2. -8. -16. -22. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -17. -20. -18. -19. -18. -20. -19. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 37.5 62.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/31/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 61.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/31/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/31/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 60 58 55 57 56 57 55 56 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 66 64 61 63 62 63 61 62 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 66 68 67 68 66 67 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 64 63 64 62 63 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT