* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902025 06/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 31 33 35 35 37 36 36 34 35 36 37 38 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 31 33 35 35 37 36 36 34 35 36 37 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 26 25 23 22 21 20 21 22 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 13 10 13 17 26 25 26 33 41 23 20 34 41 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 1 -8 -7 1 10 11 11 10 SHEAR DIR 245 291 301 320 320 11 64 57 62 48 23 3 335 251 220 243 262 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.2 25.2 23.7 22.9 22.1 21.1 19.2 18.3 17.9 17.5 1.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 118 114 108 105 105 96 93 91 88 83 82 81 80 69 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.4 -57.7 -58.0 -58.0 -57.5 -56.8 -56.4 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -55.5 -55.4 -54.4 -53.0 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 55 48 46 46 45 47 45 44 41 47 50 56 60 50 37 33 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -9 -9 -24 -63 -84 -81 -67 -73 -73 -69 -76 -66 -65 -83 -100 200 MB DIV -1 28 15 19 23 -43 -17 -23 -26 23 0 36 52 19 32 25 -101 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 6 4 8 1 0 9 9 12 30 -24 -65 -89 -56 -66 LAND (KM) 1516 1485 1463 1448 1417 1381 1347 1332 1285 1264 1349 1583 1763 1074 536 24 -123 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.2 34.0 34.5 34.7 35.3 36.1 37.0 38.4 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 57.2 56.8 56.3 55.7 54.3 52.9 51.8 50.1 47.4 43.2 37.3 30.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 9 15 21 27 31 35 36 34 34 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 14. 17. 19. 19. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 7. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 17. 16. 16. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.5 57.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 06/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.2% 4.6% 1.8% 0.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 06/22/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 06/22/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 29 31 33 35 35 37 36 36 34 35 36 37 38 34 18HR AGO 20 19 23 26 28 30 32 32 34 33 33 31 32 33 34 35 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 23 25 25 27 26 26 24 25 26 27 28 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT