* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902025 06/23/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 35 35 34 33 32 30 30 29 29 31 34 38 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 35 35 34 33 32 30 30 29 29 31 34 32 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 24 22 21 21 21 23 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 9 11 23 30 35 28 36 33 24 1 15 21 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -1 0 0 2 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 20 14 12 10 5 SHEAR DIR 281 295 306 306 311 32 41 49 56 53 34 6 8 195 214 240 260 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.2 24.3 23.5 22.7 21.5 20.0 17.6 16.6 16.4 17.6 1.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 116 112 108 105 105 98 95 92 89 85 80 78 77 78 67 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.6 -57.9 -57.9 -57.5 -56.9 -56.4 -55.8 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 -53.1 -51.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 47 44 47 46 43 42 49 45 54 59 57 55 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -7 -6 -30 -58 -82 -84 -85 -80 -77 -57 -67 -81 -80 -101 -122 -110 200 MB DIV 22 16 14 11 -28 -37 -27 -25 -10 9 -2 24 21 33 18 -3 -90 700-850 TADV 2 0 6 6 2 9 6 7 0 14 -7 -6 -15 -2 44 34 4 LAND (KM) 1484 1453 1429 1394 1366 1335 1343 1337 1320 1312 1407 1673 1502 893 157 -36 -7 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.6 34.6 34.8 35.3 36.3 37.7 39.6 42.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 56.6 56.0 55.4 54.7 53.1 51.7 50.3 48.4 45.5 41.0 34.8 27.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 5 7 10 16 23 28 33 34 31 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 15. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.0 57.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 06/23/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.20 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 12.4% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 3.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 3.1% 2.4% .1% 0% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 06/23/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 06/23/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 34 35 35 34 33 32 30 30 29 29 31 34 32 40 18HR AGO 25 24 28 30 31 31 30 29 28 26 26 25 25 27 30 28 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 24 23 22 21 19 19 18 18 20 23 21 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT