* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902025 06/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 37 38 38 36 32 31 30 32 32 33 36 42 60 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 37 38 38 36 32 31 30 32 32 33 36 32 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 40 41 38 35 31 28 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 7 13 25 32 33 29 20 7 10 16 25 25 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 8 11 10 6 8 3 1 SHEAR DIR 289 306 320 302 13 57 64 79 71 73 135 169 218 238 281 289 283 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.7 23.6 23.0 21.8 20.7 19.2 18.4 17.8 17.2 15.3 1.7 1.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 110 108 106 101 94 93 89 87 83 81 79 78 75 67 65 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -57.4 -57.2 -56.5 -55.8 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 43 44 42 43 41 45 46 52 49 44 45 50 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -26 -61 -82 -98 -86 -100 -116 -101 -97 -95 -90 -106 -117 -80 -48 200 MB DIV 13 0 11 -35 -59 -22 -32 -14 -3 7 37 41 36 29 21 -143 -235 700-850 TADV 1 6 3 1 9 3 0 0 4 3 5 -43 4 23 49 30 -6 LAND (KM) 1457 1417 1387 1354 1324 1290 1290 1261 1291 1502 1847 1203 713 149 -67 -98 -318 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.2 33.7 34.3 34.7 35.1 35.3 36.1 37.3 38.6 40.7 43.6 47.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.3 55.7 55.0 54.2 53.3 51.5 49.8 47.5 43.8 38.3 31.5 24.1 16.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 8 13 19 26 30 32 30 29 28 24 20 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 13. 25. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. 1. -0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 12. 30. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.6 56.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 06/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.15 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 12.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 2.9% 2.3% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 06/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 06/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 37 38 38 36 32 31 30 32 32 33 36 32 33 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 33 31 27 26 25 27 27 28 31 27 28 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 28 26 22 21 20 22 22 23 26 22 23 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT