* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902025 06/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 33 32 28 24 21 20 21 24 25 37 54 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 33 32 28 24 21 20 21 24 23 30 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 26 23 21 20 19 18 25 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 11 21 25 29 38 34 26 27 25 29 32 28 30 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 -4 3 4 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 27 58 67 66 73 84 89 115 142 163 205 248 274 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 23.9 23.6 23.2 22.6 21.6 20.0 17.9 18.3 17.7 16.8 2.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 97 95 93 92 89 85 80 81 79 77 68 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.0 -56.7 -56.4 -55.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 46 43 43 46 47 48 43 35 32 35 37 40 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -91 -99 -111 -102 -128 -115 -133 -81 -87 -96 -114 -115 -68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -61 -58 -38 -20 -18 -43 0 18 30 58 32 -70 -247 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 3 -5 -3 3 0 7 -6 -19 -23 -12 -8 11 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1325 1253 1219 1201 1195 1200 1321 1633 1462 823 433 -28 -79 -347 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.4 35.8 36.1 36.4 37.3 38.6 40.0 42.2 44.8 47.9 50.8 51.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 52.0 50.9 49.9 48.7 45.8 41.2 35.0 27.1 19.2 11.9 3.7 -5.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 11 16 22 29 33 30 30 30 28 26 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 18. 33. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -11. -10. 2. 19. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.7 53.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 06/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% .1% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 06/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 06/24/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 35 33 32 28 24 21 20 21 24 23 30 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 33 32 28 24 21 20 21 24 23 30 30 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 24 20 17 16 17 20 19 26 26 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT