* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932025 07/16/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 35 34 35 37 39 41 42 41 40 42 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 32 32 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 36 38 39 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 10 5 10 10 7 4 4 2 6 19 21 7 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 0 -3 -5 -4 0 1 -3 0 -2 -5 0 0 7 8 SHEAR DIR 33 28 35 60 46 4 338 40 34 176 343 19 24 26 25 235 243 SST (C) 29.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 29.9 29.3 28.0 27.4 28.5 28.0 27.1 27.2 27.8 27.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 171 170 170 170 170 167 157 137 129 143 136 124 128 137 140 112 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 10 10 7 10 3 8 4 7 5 7 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 63 62 60 65 67 59 56 61 68 67 69 65 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -42 -53 -48 -73 -98 -49 -32 -58 -64 -50 -14 1 17 -4 4 21 200 MB DIV 16 -5 -1 17 3 3 26 10 5 -2 20 -17 -8 -13 20 28 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 0 1 0 5 3 12 -4 8 3 6 9 2 -14 -17 LAND (KM) -89 -50 -67 -139 -164 -296 -446 -433 -277 -103 40 201 363 519 628 708 883 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.3 30.7 31.2 31.7 33.0 34.3 35.5 35.7 35.2 34.7 34.5 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.4 84.3 84.9 85.5 86.1 85.6 83.9 80.7 78.2 76.0 74.0 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 12 12 10 9 8 8 13 19 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 9 20 6 9 4 4 4 4 3 3 18 23 9 9 11 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.9 82.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 07/16/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.80 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 13.9% 8.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 20.3% 11.4% 2.1% 1.0% 7.0% 13.8% 12.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 11.6% 6.7% 2.7% 0.3% 2.3% 8.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 5.8% 3.3% 1.3% .1% 1.1% 4.3% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 07/16/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 07/16/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 32 32 33 36 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 28 30 31 30 30 31 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 25 27 28 27 27 28 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 19 21 22 21 21 22 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT