* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 35 38 41 43 48 51 53 57 60 67 69 77 84 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 35 38 41 43 48 51 53 57 60 67 69 77 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 41 44 46 49 53 57 63 70 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 21 15 12 13 10 10 15 11 18 14 15 8 13 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 2 5 3 1 -1 0 0 -3 1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 52 60 65 68 47 41 357 325 327 333 319 334 317 304 309 318 327 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 122 120 120 122 126 133 138 145 147 151 152 154 154 154 150 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 71 70 68 65 61 61 58 58 58 59 65 58 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 12 13 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 39 23 7 -2 6 3 -6 -41 -76 -84 -94 -67 -67 -29 -38 200 MB DIV 59 41 42 7 -21 -27 -21 -4 7 12 -5 26 5 8 0 32 11 700-850 TADV -5 0 2 4 4 3 7 14 19 20 25 14 7 2 -1 3 1 LAND (KM) 1819 1868 1901 1888 1865 1798 1697 1463 1225 990 889 910 964 1028 1066 1117 1172 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.6 22.2 23.9 25.5 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.5 37.3 38.0 38.8 41.0 43.9 47.2 50.5 53.6 56.4 58.8 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 13 16 17 17 16 15 12 10 7 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 9 7 6 10 15 21 25 23 26 26 24 22 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -6. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 18. 21. 23. 27. 30. 37. 39. 47. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 35.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.7% 8.8% 6.6% 5.2% 9.3% 9.9% 17.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.9% 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 4.3% 7.2% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% Consensus: 1.3% 8.6% 4.3% 2.7% 2.2% 4.6% 5.8% 9.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/07/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 35 38 41 43 48 51 53 57 60 67 69 77 84 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 33 36 39 41 46 49 51 55 58 65 67 75 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 31 34 36 41 44 46 50 53 60 62 70 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 30 35 38 40 44 47 54 56 64 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT