* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 42 44 49 51 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 42 44 49 51 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 43 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 11 9 8 5 11 12 14 19 21 17 18 20 25 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 6 1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -2 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 28 16 323 292 289 290 292 314 302 308 267 254 241 247 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 119 121 124 128 133 139 145 154 155 158 154 156 154 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 66 64 63 60 60 58 59 60 61 64 65 63 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 11 14 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 49 29 17 1 -11 0 -12 -27 -54 -71 -82 -86 -83 -56 -43 -12 -2 200 MB DIV 38 24 -2 -18 -21 3 2 8 6 9 13 15 16 10 17 43 15 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 4 7 12 13 21 19 15 7 -2 -1 -5 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1943 2036 2014 1972 1936 1871 1624 1405 1267 1201 1184 1158 1147 1153 1211 1181 1011 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 19.3 20.8 22.7 24.4 25.8 26.9 27.6 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.6 36.5 37.5 38.7 40.1 43.1 46.4 49.4 51.9 54.1 56.0 57.9 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 15 16 17 17 16 13 11 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 4 4 7 11 18 17 19 21 19 21 21 19 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 17. 19. 24. 26. 31. 33. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 35.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.2% 7.9% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.4% 5.3% 2.5% 1.6% 4.2% 3.7% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 7.3% 4.5% 2.9% 0.6% 1.4% 4.4% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/07/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 42 44 49 51 56 58 61 64 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 31 36 40 41 43 48 50 55 57 60 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 28 33 37 38 40 45 47 52 54 57 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 21 26 30 31 33 38 40 45 47 50 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT