* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/08/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 38 43 49 53 58 61 64 67 69 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 38 43 49 53 58 61 64 67 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 30 32 34 37 42 47 54 61 68 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 2 6 8 10 12 10 5 6 4 6 5 13 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 7 8 11 4 1 1 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 53 57 73 292 271 278 268 269 275 249 247 260 253 261 234 224 229 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 128 128 131 137 143 147 149 149 150 151 155 152 151 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 60 58 57 54 52 53 52 48 43 45 48 53 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 2 -3 -16 -29 -61 -86 -91 -81 -79 -62 -63 -57 -62 -65 -92 200 MB DIV -25 -1 5 -1 0 7 9 6 12 6 -14 -21 1 21 29 -4 4 700-850 TADV 7 9 17 19 23 25 26 17 11 3 0 1 -4 1 1 4 1 LAND (KM) 1974 1940 1908 1781 1686 1493 1422 1442 1478 1508 1477 1409 1343 1352 1459 1464 1414 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.1 23.0 25.0 26.6 27.7 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.3 42.8 44.4 45.9 48.6 50.5 51.6 52.3 52.6 53.1 54.1 55.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 15 12 8 5 2 3 6 6 8 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 9 11 17 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 16 14 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 13. 18. 24. 28. 33. 36. 39. 42. 44. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.9 39.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/08/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.55 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 12.2% 8.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 10.8% 6.4% 2.9% 1.5% 3.4% 2.3% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 8.1% 5.0% 3.2% 0.5% 1.1% 3.9% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.9% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/08/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/08/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 38 43 49 53 58 61 64 67 69 73 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 29 35 37 42 48 52 57 60 63 66 68 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 32 34 39 45 49 54 57 60 63 65 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 27 32 38 42 47 50 53 56 58 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT