* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 34 36 40 46 51 56 59 62 63 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 34 36 40 46 51 56 59 62 63 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 29 31 35 40 45 51 56 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 1 6 7 10 10 11 4 6 7 7 10 17 19 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 7 8 10 10 4 5 1 0 -5 -4 -6 -4 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 80 124 247 254 283 278 277 281 277 255 221 262 244 244 250 257 256 SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 130 134 136 139 143 145 147 146 149 153 155 152 150 152 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 57 56 55 54 54 52 50 48 47 49 49 46 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 13 7 -6 -12 -42 -72 -94 -86 -84 -67 -74 -78 -98 -100 -98 -104 200 MB DIV -23 -7 1 10 16 -1 12 -13 25 -9 24 -17 18 -2 1 -19 -12 700-850 TADV 13 17 16 18 18 25 20 19 6 3 0 0 -1 3 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1908 1861 1753 1650 1559 1403 1363 1382 1402 1408 1364 1309 1271 1293 1321 1300 1237 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 23.3 25.0 26.3 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.4 43.0 44.5 46.0 47.4 49.7 51.2 52.1 52.7 53.1 53.8 54.9 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 13 9 6 4 2 4 5 6 4 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 11 14 19 16 17 18 18 19 19 19 17 17 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.4 41.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.2% 6.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 1.6% 2.9% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.0% 3.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.6% 3.9% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/08/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 34 36 40 46 51 56 59 62 63 64 66 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 33 35 39 45 50 55 58 61 62 63 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 30 32 36 42 47 52 55 58 59 60 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 23 25 29 35 40 45 48 51 52 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT