* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/10/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 26 29 33 39 46 52 59 63 68 72 75 79 81 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 25 26 29 33 39 46 52 59 63 68 72 75 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 43 49 55 62 70 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 7 9 5 8 5 8 7 8 8 8 7 10 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 5 8 7 5 1 0 -2 -1 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 275 278 283 283 276 281 252 245 268 308 274 290 271 312 290 273 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 142 142 144 146 146 149 150 151 151 154 156 163 170 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 50 50 46 41 40 40 39 39 41 40 47 48 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -44 -60 -80 -86 -77 -83 -76 -69 -58 -58 -45 -65 -41 4 69 90 200 MB DIV -15 8 16 -6 -20 5 -23 -4 -19 18 -10 -3 -28 9 -21 27 2 700-850 TADV 27 21 13 16 16 4 1 -3 0 -5 4 -4 1 -1 3 2 -3 LAND (KM) 1312 1250 1216 1203 1183 1129 1021 878 742 659 649 719 764 717 662 602 531 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.6 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.2 52.0 52.6 53.1 54.1 55.3 57.0 59.1 61.3 63.2 65.0 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 5 5 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 19 19 20 22 25 27 35 39 35 34 37 32 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 21. 27. 34. 38. 43. 47. 50. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.3 50.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/10/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.4% 6.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.4% 3.3% 2.8% 1.1% 7.2% 7.5% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.1% 3.3% 2.7% 0.4% 2.4% 5.2% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/10/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/10/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 25 26 29 33 39 46 52 59 63 68 72 75 79 81 18HR AGO 25 24 25 24 25 28 32 38 45 51 58 62 67 71 74 78 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 21 24 28 34 41 47 54 58 63 67 70 74 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 29 36 42 49 53 58 62 65 69 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT