* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/10/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 44 51 56 60 62 65 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 44 51 56 60 62 65 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 30 33 37 41 45 50 54 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 11 10 5 9 7 11 6 13 10 15 11 15 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 6 6 3 1 -1 -4 -3 -6 -4 -5 -1 -1 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 272 278 281 285 302 255 271 255 287 282 258 266 283 326 299 271 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 146 147 149 147 148 150 149 151 151 154 157 154 149 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 50 49 45 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 52 57 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -64 -86 -87 -80 -83 -82 -65 -63 -53 -54 -61 -80 -59 -56 13 18 200 MB DIV 12 19 -9 -13 -12 -12 0 -13 23 11 1 -25 -9 12 16 -2 2 700-850 TADV 24 19 14 14 9 1 -3 0 -2 2 0 2 1 2 5 7 6 LAND (KM) 1231 1203 1189 1174 1153 1092 986 858 752 738 790 905 1013 1087 994 881 760 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.5 25.0 25.8 26.9 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.6 53.2 53.7 54.2 55.1 56.4 58.1 60.1 61.9 63.3 64.6 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 5 4 5 7 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 19 20 21 24 27 29 35 34 27 25 24 19 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 51.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/10/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.60 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 6.6% 4.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 4.3% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/10/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/10/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 44 51 56 60 62 65 66 67 67 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 26 31 37 43 50 55 59 61 64 65 66 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 29 35 41 48 53 57 59 62 63 64 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 23 29 35 42 47 51 53 56 57 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT