* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/11/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 44 46 49 51 51 53 53 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 44 46 49 51 51 53 53 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 12 12 14 16 16 15 16 12 15 11 16 22 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 0 0 -4 -6 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 263 282 296 294 278 285 276 291 292 287 287 301 296 243 229 245 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 146 148 149 154 152 155 156 156 155 150 143 141 136 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 50 48 46 42 44 44 45 50 59 66 65 61 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -90 -96 -90 -84 -75 -73 -80 -77 -74 -85 -84 -86 -76 -99 -89 -104 -108 200 MB DIV -3 -12 -14 6 -17 -5 -20 24 6 -7 -5 27 11 17 28 7 33 700-850 TADV 17 16 8 4 0 -3 0 -5 1 0 1 1 5 7 4 8 -7 LAND (KM) 1330 1364 1377 1380 1368 1298 1191 1115 1120 1189 1265 1348 1450 1343 1219 1110 1006 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.6 28.5 29.4 30.2 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.5 52.9 53.2 53.4 53.6 54.3 55.7 57.4 58.8 59.5 59.9 59.9 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 4 2 2 5 7 8 6 5 4 5 7 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 20 20 21 22 23 21 21 21 19 14 9 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.0 52.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/11/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.7% 6.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 4.1% 4.7% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0.1% 1.4% 4.1% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/11/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/11/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 44 46 49 51 51 53 53 52 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 34 39 43 45 48 50 50 52 52 51 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 35 39 41 44 46 46 48 48 47 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 28 32 34 37 39 39 41 41 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT