* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/11/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 42 45 47 48 49 49 50 50 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 42 45 47 48 49 49 50 50 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 34 36 37 37 38 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 10 14 13 18 18 20 18 19 20 16 14 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 2 -3 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 279 293 285 265 266 269 274 288 287 298 319 345 356 328 287 296 332 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 147 150 154 153 155 156 157 157 156 155 145 138 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 47 45 41 41 43 43 44 51 60 67 62 57 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -86 -79 -77 -78 -77 -81 -71 -78 -85 -80 -79 -61 -50 -54 -90 -134 200 MB DIV -10 -9 8 -20 -32 -8 -30 24 -7 -11 0 32 5 11 1 5 -6 700-850 TADV 18 8 4 0 0 -3 -1 -5 0 -1 1 1 8 3 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 1346 1364 1381 1383 1347 1249 1122 1046 1056 1092 1121 1172 1269 1384 1339 1243 1240 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 52.9 53.0 53.1 53.4 54.4 56.1 58.0 59.4 60.4 61.1 61.6 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 2 4 7 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 20 20 21 23 25 23 24 23 22 19 17 13 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 23. 24. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.3 52.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/11/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 12.1% 8.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.4% 2.7% 1.8% 0.5% 4.3% 4.0% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.7% 3.8% 2.8% 0.2% 1.5% 4.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/11/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/11/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 42 45 47 48 49 49 50 50 51 53 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 32 36 41 44 46 47 48 48 49 49 50 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 32 37 40 42 43 44 44 45 45 46 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 30 33 35 36 37 37 38 38 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT