* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/11/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 29 31 35 40 44 46 49 48 48 49 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 29 31 35 40 44 46 49 48 48 49 50 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 35 38 42 45 48 48 46 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 9 3 4 6 5 9 8 4 16 18 19 6 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 -7 -3 -5 0 -4 -6 -3 -5 -3 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 264 298 332 343 44 150 157 193 210 284 13 14 29 349 220 216 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 26.4 25.5 24.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 132 130 128 126 125 124 122 125 128 130 130 119 112 108 103 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 53 50 48 47 52 51 51 48 50 51 55 50 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -90 -62 -62 -62 -69 -77 -96 -107 -104 -101 -103 -101 -70 -53 -31 -35 -44 200 MB DIV 5 -3 0 -16 -5 -13 0 17 8 -14 -18 -11 9 42 26 11 57 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 8 5 7 0 25 27 LAND (KM) 1634 1511 1467 1445 1441 1440 1405 1368 1337 1356 1410 1482 1562 1621 1694 1878 1421 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.3 33.8 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.6 35.0 35.4 35.5 35.4 35.3 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.3 49.7 49.1 48.6 48.3 47.9 48.0 47.8 47.4 46.5 45.3 43.8 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 6 4 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 13 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 838 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 15. 13. 11. 11. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 24. 23. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.1 50.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/11/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 13.2% 9.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 8.4% 4.4% 1.1% 0.3% 5.0% 7.1% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 7.2% 4.6% 2.7% 0.1% 1.7% 6.3% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/11/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/11/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 29 31 35 40 44 46 49 48 48 49 50 51 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 27 29 33 38 42 44 47 46 46 47 48 49 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 25 29 34 38 40 43 42 42 43 44 45 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 21 26 30 32 35 34 34 35 36 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT