* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 35 41 49 54 58 61 63 65 64 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 35 41 49 54 58 61 63 65 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 32 36 41 44 46 48 43 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 25 21 14 6 5 8 14 19 20 29 28 33 32 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 1 1 -1 -4 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -5 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 127 127 136 147 148 184 282 329 296 303 283 309 301 305 292 281 297 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 30.1 30.9 30.8 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 149 154 149 154 163 164 162 163 161 159 157 172 171 170 171 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 13 11 11 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 55 58 52 51 50 50 56 58 59 64 67 74 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 12 9 9 11 11 14 30 43 43 29 53 29 24 0 -4 200 MB DIV -7 -36 -24 -7 -7 16 26 29 36 28 39 3 50 60 27 -6 19 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -4 -2 -8 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 6 4 5 3 7 4 4 LAND (KM) 1004 938 873 848 841 515 190 15 299 260 240 134 97 -13 50 206 154 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.8 48.4 50.0 51.6 54.7 57.9 61.2 64.3 67.2 69.8 72.3 74.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 13 13 11 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 35 38 43 49 57 60 60 68 60 68 71 87 99 90 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 26. 32. 37. 41. 44. 48. 49. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -13. -18. -22. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 34. 32. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 45.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.73 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.2% 6.7% 5.2% 4.3% 8.6% 11.3% 22.3% Logistic: 1.8% 3.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 2.3% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% Consensus: 1.1% 5.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 3.3% 4.6% 10.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 2.3% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 35 41 49 54 58 61 63 65 57 57 56 55 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 34 40 48 53 57 60 62 64 56 56 55 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 31 37 45 50 54 57 59 61 53 53 52 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 39 44 48 51 53 55 47 47 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT