* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 43 47 51 54 59 63 66 66 69 73 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 43 47 51 54 59 63 65 55 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 36 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 17 15 14 9 9 18 14 21 19 18 13 14 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 3 5 3 4 4 2 0 -2 -5 -3 0 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 148 158 168 176 187 207 254 215 266 246 254 255 270 236 258 233 301 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.3 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 152 153 163 166 164 165 163 162 167 172 164 167 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 58 53 54 52 52 52 54 58 63 67 72 74 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 15 12 9 8 9 27 32 63 63 50 38 48 59 81 85 200 MB DIV -52 -32 0 5 3 21 13 32 12 28 44 33 42 56 77 54 87 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -9 -3 -1 -4 0 2 2 -1 1 4 -3 2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 873 836 749 545 361 132 184 283 253 216 190 197 289 128 -8 -52 -99 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.4 50.6 52.5 54.4 56.2 59.6 63.1 66.4 70.0 73.2 76.0 78.6 80.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 21 19 19 17 17 17 17 17 14 13 12 10 9 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 46 49 54 61 59 66 61 69 74 84 68 57 54 57 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 26. 32. 37. 41. 45. 48. 50. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 29. 33. 36. 36. 39. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 48.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.78 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 12.3% 8.3% 6.5% 5.3% 9.2% 10.2% 18.5% Logistic: 2.6% 5.5% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9% 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 1.5% 6.7% 4.7% 2.9% 2.0% 4.1% 3.9% 6.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 1.9% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/23/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 43 47 51 54 59 63 65 55 39 31 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 34 37 42 46 50 53 58 62 64 54 38 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 33 38 42 46 49 54 58 60 50 34 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 32 36 40 43 48 52 54 44 28 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT