* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 41 47 52 56 59 63 67 70 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 41 47 52 56 59 63 67 70 71 74 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 12 6 5 7 5 13 15 18 21 21 18 14 12 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 7 8 7 3 4 3 -1 -1 -5 -4 -1 -2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 145 152 162 170 167 222 240 264 287 256 274 275 275 257 261 245 243 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.9 29.8 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 161 162 164 166 166 164 160 165 170 170 164 168 165 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 58 58 53 53 54 54 55 58 59 61 65 66 69 69 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 19 10 13 8 25 29 40 55 63 56 32 40 33 49 59 200 MB DIV -32 -1 5 18 36 12 23 32 31 49 40 54 42 68 20 35 75 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -9 -7 -3 -1 -4 -1 2 6 -1 8 0 6 -1 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 737 713 570 381 210 19 280 315 245 230 176 147 248 241 164 137 -13 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 52.3 54.2 55.9 57.5 60.7 63.9 67.1 70.3 73.1 75.7 78.1 80.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 45 49 53 57 60 58 66 62 69 74 87 81 67 69 65 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 26. 32. 37. 41. 45. 49. 50. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 50.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.79 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 15.5% 10.3% 7.6% 6.2% 10.8% 13.2% 22.4% Logistic: 5.4% 16.5% 11.6% 4.0% 2.3% 8.5% 8.5% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.6% 7.8% Consensus: 2.9% 13.7% 8.3% 3.9% 2.8% 7.1% 9.7% 13.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 7.8% 4.6% 1.9% 1.4% 3.5% 4.8% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/23/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 37 41 47 52 56 59 63 67 70 71 74 67 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 39 45 50 54 57 61 65 68 69 72 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 36 42 47 51 54 58 62 65 66 69 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 29 35 40 44 47 51 55 58 59 62 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT