* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 45 49 54 58 61 64 67 69 70 71 74 78 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 42 45 49 54 58 61 64 67 69 70 71 74 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 42 44 46 49 51 52 55 56 57 57 59 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 7 6 6 7 9 21 13 24 20 24 19 17 9 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 -1 -5 -4 1 0 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 159 160 160 164 206 262 260 281 261 267 277 280 257 266 241 291 106 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 30.0 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.4 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 161 163 164 164 168 163 160 158 170 172 168 166 167 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 11 10 9 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 54 56 51 52 51 52 54 53 56 59 63 68 72 71 75 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 12 17 13 16 38 28 58 60 51 34 35 32 62 69 91 200 MB DIV 15 19 24 30 21 6 42 39 32 29 56 44 65 43 42 58 63 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -7 -3 0 -7 -2 0 6 0 2 0 -4 1 -2 -5 2 LAND (KM) 729 592 403 233 92 120 326 303 169 171 71 147 326 210 175 49 -97 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.1 54.0 55.7 57.3 58.9 62.2 65.4 68.7 71.9 74.7 77.2 79.5 81.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 53 58 58 57 62 65 67 72 87 95 82 75 71 64 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 42. 45. 46. 48. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 39. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.1 52.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 20.3% 12.2% 9.0% 7.1% 12.4% 15.1% 24.0% Logistic: 5.5% 17.6% 10.8% 3.5% 1.9% 8.8% 9.2% 8.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 26.2% 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 5.0% 18.9% 9.8% Consensus: 3.9% 21.4% 11.4% 4.2% 3.0% 8.7% 14.4% 14.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 11.7% 6.2% 2.6% 1.5% 4.3% 7.2% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/24/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 42 45 49 54 58 61 64 67 69 70 71 74 48 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 64 66 67 68 71 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 41 46 50 53 56 59 61 62 63 66 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 39 43 46 49 52 54 55 56 59 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT