* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 41 45 51 56 60 63 67 71 73 76 77 79 82 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 41 45 51 56 60 63 67 71 73 76 77 53 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 41 43 46 49 52 55 57 59 61 63 66 49 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 4 7 4 13 12 18 19 19 16 15 9 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 1 3 1 0 -2 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 160 170 148 169 223 262 279 293 256 281 276 270 271 272 203 138 130 SST (C) 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.6 30.1 30.1 30.7 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 161 162 164 164 166 166 164 160 171 172 172 162 171 171 171 170 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 50 52 51 52 54 55 57 59 62 69 70 71 69 72 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 16 13 7 24 35 45 60 52 52 25 39 24 48 66 77 200 MB DIV 13 4 20 26 6 6 46 42 37 37 53 38 72 14 54 42 34 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -5 -2 -1 -3 -2 4 6 0 2 -1 3 -2 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 584 374 197 37 5 311 327 203 161 86 108 313 276 233 59 -89 -128 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 56.0 57.6 59.2 60.9 64.1 67.4 70.8 73.7 76.5 79.0 81.3 83.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 58 58 58 56 65 62 70 81 99 88 87 85 69 46 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. 45. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 32. 36. 38. 41. 42. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 54.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.79 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.8% 11.9% 8.7% 6.9% 12.4% 16.5% 26.2% Logistic: 6.7% 21.1% 13.4% 4.4% 2.4% 9.9% 10.4% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 19.6% 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 3.7% 9.0% 22.3% Consensus: 4.1% 19.5% 10.4% 4.4% 3.1% 8.7% 12.0% 21.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 10.7% 5.7% 2.7% 1.5% 4.3% 6.0% 10.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/24/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 41 45 51 56 60 63 67 71 73 76 77 53 35 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 42 48 53 57 60 64 68 70 73 74 50 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 44 49 53 56 60 64 66 69 70 46 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 36 41 45 48 52 56 58 61 62 38 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT