* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 49 55 59 64 68 72 74 77 75 77 81 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 49 55 59 64 68 72 74 77 48 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 47 50 52 55 57 60 41 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 6 4 8 18 11 22 15 18 17 14 7 6 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 9 10 6 1 1 0 -4 -2 -8 -1 0 -5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 168 145 160 207 224 220 284 262 279 269 272 250 269 227 248 191 135 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.3 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.7 30.8 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 164 164 166 166 161 160 163 173 172 163 170 171 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 12 11 11 10 9 7 8 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 52 53 55 55 58 59 64 68 72 74 75 77 76 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 10 7 10 26 35 51 56 48 20 31 27 31 52 78 95 200 MB DIV 8 32 21 5 -11 27 39 14 20 37 44 60 62 30 48 28 56 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -1 0 -4 0 3 7 0 -1 4 -1 1 -1 -7 0 0 LAND (KM) 370 180 65 16 176 311 278 157 140 55 238 272 237 31 -128 -83 -105 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.8 59.5 61.1 62.8 66.0 69.4 72.4 75.3 77.9 80.5 82.9 85.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 13 12 11 12 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 54 58 59 60 56 65 62 69 74 96 88 81 83 68 18 10 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 44. 45. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. 42. 40. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 56.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.81 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 15.8% 10.4% 7.7% 6.3% 11.6% 13.8% 23.3% Logistic: 3.2% 8.4% 4.6% 1.6% 0.8% 5.4% 6.2% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.0% 6.6% Consensus: 2.4% 10.7% 5.8% 3.1% 2.4% 6.2% 7.7% 13.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 6.3% 3.4% 2.0% 1.2% 3.1% 3.8% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/24/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 44 49 55 59 64 68 72 74 77 48 33 29 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 43 48 54 58 63 67 71 73 76 47 32 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 39 44 50 54 59 63 67 69 72 43 28 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 37 43 47 52 56 60 62 65 36 21 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT