* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 46 52 58 62 67 70 73 76 77 75 76 78 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 46 52 58 62 67 70 73 76 50 41 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 45 48 50 52 54 56 58 42 37 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 3 3 12 15 17 21 20 19 15 11 15 8 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 10 7 1 2 3 0 -2 -6 -5 0 -3 -2 3 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 109 164 202 213 216 295 301 271 288 284 289 287 294 277 256 265 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.9 30.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.7 30.3 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 163 162 162 164 161 160 169 173 161 165 166 172 172 172 172 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 10 10 8 10 8 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 51 53 54 56 58 61 68 69 72 73 74 74 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 5 15 21 35 41 58 48 39 21 21 -2 13 15 38 55 200 MB DIV 22 15 3 -14 -1 31 29 23 27 33 43 68 14 15 0 2 46 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -5 0 0 6 12 -1 6 -2 4 1 -5 4 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 198 31 5 165 311 327 211 173 97 138 315 240 79 -91 22 83 -36 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.6 59.3 61.0 62.6 64.1 67.3 70.6 73.6 76.5 79.2 81.9 84.5 86.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 58 55 56 65 62 70 81 95 80 84 75 34 32 31 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 43. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 42. 40. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 57.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 14.3% 9.4% 7.1% 5.9% 11.0% 13.0% 22.2% Logistic: 4.0% 14.9% 8.6% 5.2% 3.5% 13.0% 13.4% 25.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 17.8% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% 2.0% 6.3% Consensus: 2.4% 15.7% 7.5% 4.1% 3.2% 8.6% 9.5% 18.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 8.8% 4.2% 2.5% 1.6% 4.3% 4.7% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/24/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 40 46 52 58 62 67 70 73 76 50 41 42 38 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 44 50 56 60 65 68 71 74 48 39 40 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 40 46 52 56 61 64 67 70 44 35 36 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 39 45 49 54 57 60 63 37 28 29 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT