* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 57 60 62 63 65 65 66 69 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 57 60 44 38 40 35 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 39 33 33 34 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 8 12 15 20 22 20 17 16 15 16 4 7 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 1 2 2 -1 -3 -5 -6 1 0 -1 7 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 216 253 300 279 273 288 267 284 287 285 293 308 302 318 295 266 341 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.9 30.7 30.3 30.6 30.7 31.4 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 163 166 165 161 159 173 169 160 169 172 172 172 173 173 173 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 13 12 12 11 11 8 10 9 11 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 52 53 54 57 59 65 67 70 71 69 67 69 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 19 23 24 37 50 33 18 1 3 -14 2 30 56 44 63 200 MB DIV 0 -18 -18 18 37 22 23 25 14 20 53 0 3 19 31 54 63 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 1 3 9 8 -1 6 -2 -1 3 -3 0 -4 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 19 195 348 348 313 160 141 52 255 265 143 -91 17 121 -25 -223 -311 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.1 62.9 64.5 66.2 67.9 71.3 74.5 77.6 80.7 83.5 86.4 89.1 91.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 17 17 17 15 14 14 13 14 12 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 57 54 58 64 67 64 72 94 89 85 79 34 33 33 30 5 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 42. 45. 46. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 35. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 61.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.6% 11.0% 8.5% 7.0% 11.3% 12.3% 21.2% Logistic: 3.0% 9.0% 5.6% 3.3% 1.4% 3.9% 3.8% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.3% 9.7% 6.0% 4.0% 2.8% 5.2% 5.4% 13.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 4.8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/25/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 57 60 44 38 40 35 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 57 60 44 38 40 35 30 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 42 47 50 54 57 41 35 37 32 27 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 34 39 42 46 49 33 27 29 24 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT