* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082026 09/30/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 14 14 15 26 31 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 352 345 317 288 273 289 300 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.2 26.4 25.5 24.7 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 128 127 118 109 102 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.9 -56.5 -57.0 -57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 49 52 52 54 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -19 -28 -34 -38 -34 -30 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -33 -26 -24 -12 -7 -22 -27 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 3 3 1 4 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1671 1686 1703 1709 1722 1821 1965 2035 1868 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.5 33.5 34.0 34.4 34.9 35.0 35.2 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 43.3 42.8 41.7 40.6 38.0 35.5 33.0 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 7 10 10 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 9 7 11 11 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.4 43.8 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082026 HANNA 09/30/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.32 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.34 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 16.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.02 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082026 HANNA 09/30/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082026 HANNA 09/30/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 34 32 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT