* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 42 39 38 31 28 27 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 42 39 38 31 28 27 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 35 32 30 30 30 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 43 44 51 53 47 33 34 44 50 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 6 2 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 208 206 207 206 221 237 240 224 220 219 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.8 25.3 25.5 26.0 25.7 24.5 23.0 24.9 24.3 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 111 106 107 111 108 98 92 106 104 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.7 -49.6 -48.7 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 41 35 32 34 33 35 37 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 19 20 23 22 24 27 30 39 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 65 78 64 47 21 28 44 72 103 149 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 46 65 84 48 41 47 20 45 15 13 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 -3 -9 -23 -24 -7 0 -11 -50 -123 -214 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 512 496 518 532 516 461 365 298 310 488 579 581 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.7 35.6 36.4 36.9 37.5 38.1 38.7 39.1 39.1 39.8 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.6 70.4 70.0 69.6 69.2 69.1 70.0 70.2 68.6 65.3 60.4 55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 7 5 3 4 4 10 16 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -0. -2. -0. 3. 7. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -14. -17. -18. -20. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.8 70.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.14 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/19/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 44 42 39 38 31 28 27 25 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 41 38 37 30 27 26 24 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 36 35 28 25 24 22 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 29 22 19 18 16 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT