* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 42 40 38 34 33 34 36 45 41 28 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 42 40 38 34 33 34 36 45 41 28 19 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 40 38 36 33 32 31 32 33 34 29 24 24 27 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 45 53 52 52 34 29 33 41 50 58 58 50 47 49 54 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 5 5 9 4 -1 6 5 -5 -3 1 26 18 SHEAR DIR 208 206 209 208 215 233 240 234 223 223 227 217 212 206 203 185 196 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.1 26.3 25.1 19.9 13.2 17.3 18.0 15.5 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 103 102 102 105 105 110 107 120 111 82 66 77 82 78 75 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -51.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -49.1 -49.3 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 -51.8 -50.6 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 2.7 2.1 3.1 4.5 6.4 4.5 3.8 4.5 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 38 33 32 30 29 30 30 32 36 43 43 41 40 49 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 21 22 24 27 29 34 42 40 29 25 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 48 71 56 38 27 30 41 58 86 120 179 149 136 187 156 193 284 200 MB DIV 51 69 67 47 26 34 45 17 22 16 17 83 90 93 75 27 72 700-850 TADV -6 -14 -30 -20 -13 6 -2 -11 -44 -95 -137 -48 -41 -71 -219 -368 -178 LAND (KM) 439 446 425 440 440 391 349 408 505 695 774 503 270 520 1170 1219 462 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 36.2 36.8 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.2 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.7 42.1 44.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.9 70.8 70.7 70.4 70.4 71.0 71.4 70.5 68.0 64.0 57.9 53.1 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 4 2 1 3 1 7 13 21 27 20 10 24 39 47 46 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -14. -11. -8. -7. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. -28. -30. -27. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 3. 5. 11. 23. 17. 2. -4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -11. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -12. -11. -9. 0. -4. -17. -26. -25. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.3 70.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.10 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 1.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/20/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 43 42 40 38 34 33 34 36 45 41 28 19 20 22 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 41 39 37 33 32 33 35 44 40 27 18 19 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 37 35 31 30 31 33 42 38 25 16 17 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 30 26 25 26 28 37 33 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT