* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 44 44 40 36 32 30 41 49 32 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 44 44 40 36 32 30 41 49 32 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 37 35 33 33 33 31 27 22 19 17 17 17 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 47 47 50 44 29 34 45 59 76 62 42 46 54 35 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 2 6 4 5 5 17 2 0 -1 -6 0 3 -6 SHEAR DIR 208 208 207 213 221 231 236 219 214 211 216 207 224 245 238 242 234 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.9 25.2 22.6 22.1 15.0 11.1 14.4 21.9 21.2 22.1 21.7 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 104 103 104 110 106 91 91 71 60 68 92 91 95 89 84 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -50.2 -48.6 -48.7 -49.4 -51.7 -54.3 -57.4 -57.1 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.6 1.6 2.1 3.2 3.4 5.0 4.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 39 36 34 33 35 33 40 45 43 36 37 36 32 25 24 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 22 22 24 23 24 27 32 38 39 28 19 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 54 46 38 32 47 48 73 180 150 96 130 112 46 -39 -90 -121 200 MB DIV 54 60 52 35 41 45 35 38 34 28 47 59 25 56 16 -21 -27 700-850 TADV -2 -9 -11 -3 1 -2 -11 -50 -188 -266 -35 -13 -28 -46 -24 -51 -18 LAND (KM) 475 490 503 511 494 422 349 327 374 323 200 312 588 1058 1753 1453 1075 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 36.0 36.5 36.8 37.0 37.6 38.6 39.7 41.0 43.6 45.1 44.1 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.5 70.3 69.9 69.6 69.5 69.8 69.2 67.1 62.5 57.5 56.1 56.4 52.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 3 2 4 7 13 22 18 1 12 28 37 34 22 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -23. -28. -31. -26. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 19. 2. -12. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -4. 4. -13. -29. -37. -35. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.3 70.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.10 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 1.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/20/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 44 44 44 40 36 32 30 41 49 32 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 43 43 39 35 31 29 40 48 31 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 41 37 33 29 27 38 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 31 27 23 21 32 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT