* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 46 44 42 37 34 47 51 46 45 58 69 81 101 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 46 44 42 37 34 44 48 44 43 55 66 78 98 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 38 35 33 31 29 23 18 17 19 23 26 28 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 47 42 34 31 32 53 74 92 82 73 87 99 79 64 36 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 3 5 4 22 19 8 3 -5 -10 6 15 10 5 SHEAR DIR 206 214 223 236 241 237 219 221 219 226 240 246 255 266 285 276 252 SST (C) 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.0 24.1 19.3 14.0 11.9 9.3 6.5 10.2 9.4 10.9 11.1 2.9 1.3 1.3 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 108 103 97 77 70 71 68 66 69 72 73 72 67 66 64 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -50.2 -49.2 -49.4 -50.0 -50.4 -51.9 -53.4 -52.6 -50.9 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 38 38 41 47 51 51 42 40 62 65 60 66 67 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 25 24 24 25 25 28 32 39 36 27 22 28 33 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 41 42 34 51 104 207 141 118 43 39 30 146 98 123 279 200 MB DIV 63 46 43 38 54 41 50 33 37 31 50 52 26 46 19 -126 -157 700-850 TADV -3 2 2 -2 0 -10 -95 -272 -316 -302 -34 57 85 58 103 23 13 LAND (KM) 553 533 494 441 362 196 179 109 29 260 669 1353 762 374 249 196 483 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.8 37.3 37.8 38.5 40.2 42.0 44.4 47.1 48.6 50.0 53.0 56.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.4 69.0 68.8 68.9 69.1 68.7 66.0 60.5 54.5 49.4 44.0 35.0 23.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 8 10 19 26 21 18 24 37 36 33 27 21 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. 2. 8. 16. 21. 27. 36. 44. 54. 70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -16. -18. -19. -24. -29. -31. -20. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 10. 19. 14. -0. -7. -0. 5. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -8. -13. -16. -17. -14. -10. -9. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -11. 2. 6. 1. 0. 13. 24. 36. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.3 69.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 30.0 to 152.9 0.09 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.04 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/20/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 46 46 44 42 37 34 44 48 44 43 55 66 78 98 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 43 41 36 33 43 47 43 42 54 65 77 97 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 39 37 32 29 39 43 39 38 50 61 73 93 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 31 26 23 33 37 33 32 44 55 67 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT