* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 45 45 43 40 51 58 48 36 28 25 47 51 62 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 45 45 43 40 51 58 48 36 28 25 47 51 62 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 37 35 33 30 26 21 18 17 19 23 28 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 41 32 28 29 42 68 76 64 39 54 40 45 40 30 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 6 3 4 8 22 1 2 0 0 23 18 -11 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 215 225 238 239 242 229 216 217 219 210 235 232 205 205 227 209 188 SST (C) 25.2 25.5 24.7 23.9 22.9 15.1 13.4 10.6 10.1 14.6 24.1 21.4 16.1 14.0 11.0 6.6 8.3 POT. INT. (KT) 105 107 101 96 91 70 71 66 63 71 106 93 79 76 69 62 62 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -52.4 -51.7 -51.5 -50.5 -48.9 -47.7 -48.3 -51.0 -53.1 -52.5 -51.8 -50.1 -47.8 -46.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 3.1 4.0 5.3 4.9 3.0 2.5 3.8 4.2 3.3 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 36 37 40 40 43 48 48 31 34 34 51 51 69 68 74 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 26 25 26 28 33 41 39 29 20 17 15 30 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 40 34 26 93 171 155 96 116 136 114 140 255 308 334 320 200 MB DIV 41 45 32 46 59 61 36 33 8 13 10 58 85 72 53 2 -3 700-850 TADV -3 3 0 1 1 -41 -198 -264 -58 -3 -28 -129 -265 -164 -26 -12 -30 LAND (KM) 529 485 432 353 267 184 98 47 117 250 658 998 1566 437 324 262 352 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.4 37.9 38.6 39.4 41.3 43.5 46.1 46.5 43.6 40.7 41.8 45.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.8 68.8 69.0 69.0 67.8 63.8 59.2 58.4 59.1 53.1 42.5 29.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 14 22 14 8 20 34 46 54 50 24 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -1. 4. 7. 9. 8. 11. 16. 21. 26. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -23. -15. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -6. -8. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 19. 17. 2. -11. -16. -19. -0. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -2. -5. 6. 13. 3. -9. -17. -20. 2. 6. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.8 69.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.07 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -18.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.17 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/21/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 46 45 45 43 40 51 58 48 36 28 25 47 51 62 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 43 43 41 38 49 56 46 34 26 23 45 49 60 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 39 37 34 45 52 42 30 22 19 41 45 56 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 32 29 40 47 37 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT