* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/16/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 49 52 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 49 52 53 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 32 35 38 41 44 48 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 19 19 16 17 8 11 8 6 8 6 7 14 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 -3 -1 -6 -3 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 308 321 325 335 356 2 39 29 44 24 51 1 44 351 7 354 10 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 137 137 138 141 139 140 143 142 143 142 141 140 139 139 141 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -1.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 7 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 58 56 56 54 51 51 52 51 49 47 46 45 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -49 -45 -54 -60 -59 -65 -61 -37 -2 -2 -13 -47 -81 -88 -50 -45 200 MB DIV -19 -39 -24 -31 -1 -21 -21 -45 -8 -34 -30 -39 -18 -30 -17 -9 -19 700-850 TADV -9 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1597 1520 1459 1428 1407 1394 1394 1425 1487 1504 1489 1468 1455 1464 1479 1483 1462 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.9 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.1 31.9 31.7 31.3 30.9 30.4 30.1 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.4 57.1 57.6 58.1 59.0 59.6 59.3 58.7 57.6 56.7 56.5 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 4 4 1 3 4 6 3 1 2 3 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 20 19 19 17 14 17 23 24 20 20 20 19 23 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.5 55.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/16/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.49 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 3.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 2.6% 3.8% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/16/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/16/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 49 52 53 55 57 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 31 33 36 38 41 45 48 51 52 54 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 27 29 32 34 37 41 44 47 48 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 20 22 25 27 30 34 37 40 41 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT