* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/16/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 40 43 47 51 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 40 43 47 51 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 44 49 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 21 21 17 19 11 13 10 9 5 6 1 1 9 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 -7 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 320 328 343 11 27 29 71 37 60 22 25 7 159 292 176 272 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 135 137 141 140 140 141 142 144 145 144 142 140 139 141 148 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 5 7 8 9 7 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 55 55 53 50 49 51 51 51 51 51 46 47 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -46 -55 -61 -63 -74 -66 -54 -16 -9 -2 -40 -65 -88 -72 -18 -13 200 MB DIV -45 -27 -54 -7 -16 -35 -10 -29 -22 -11 -30 -20 -19 -15 19 3 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -5 0 -2 1 1 3 2 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 -23 LAND (KM) 1501 1435 1389 1355 1346 1338 1338 1404 1484 1570 1549 1555 1584 1614 1690 1717 1840 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.6 32.4 32.4 32.0 31.7 31.0 30.4 30.3 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.2 57.8 58.4 58.9 59.7 59.7 59.0 57.7 56.2 55.4 55.1 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 5 7 6 3 1 1 2 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 16 17 20 11 11 17 27 23 25 30 32 27 19 11 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.1 56.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/16/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.47 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.04 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.7% 3.7% 4.5% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/16/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/16/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 40 43 47 51 55 57 59 61 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 29 31 33 35 38 41 45 49 53 55 57 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 28 30 32 35 38 42 46 50 52 54 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 22 24 27 30 34 38 42 44 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT