* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/17/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 38 40 43 46 48 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 38 40 43 46 48 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 36 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 19 22 19 17 19 11 12 6 20 27 22 13 6 7 12 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 0 -4 -1 -3 -3 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 331 347 15 37 25 58 48 59 350 295 318 341 346 1 288 278 261 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.4 27.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 138 139 139 138 139 129 130 140 137 138 142 144 148 147 152 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -56.2 -56.4 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 4 4 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 56 54 51 47 47 45 45 41 42 44 42 44 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -51 -62 -62 -59 -65 -54 -33 -4 -17 -14 -39 -68 -97 -72 -31 -4 200 MB DIV -24 -39 -9 -17 -36 -24 -24 9 -13 -10 -19 -27 -19 -10 5 -15 -27 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -5 0 -3 0 3 2 0 -5 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -14 LAND (KM) 1426 1367 1323 1308 1293 1283 1299 1385 1501 1564 1689 1783 1841 1887 1907 1819 1739 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.7 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 33.1 33.1 33.0 32.7 31.9 31.2 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 58.1 58.7 59.1 59.5 59.8 58.8 56.8 53.8 50.6 48.3 47.5 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 3 1 6 10 13 12 8 4 3 3 5 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 20 20 16 12 19 11 9 16 16 21 24 27 32 37 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 21. 23. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.4 57.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/17/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.47 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 9.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 6.6% 3.4% 2.1% 1.5% 4.9% 5.5% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.5% 1.6% 1.8% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/17/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/17/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 38 40 43 46 48 51 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 29 32 35 36 37 39 42 45 47 50 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 25 28 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 46 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 22 25 26 27 29 32 35 37 40 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT