* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/17/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 39 41 45 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 39 41 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 29 28 29 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 18 20 26 16 13 6 16 26 35 27 22 8 10 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -5 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 350 22 37 21 37 68 43 5 297 281 302 326 14 8 354 274 302 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 138 137 135 135 128 130 127 126 134 132 136 146 148 156 161 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -56.4 -57.0 -56.6 -56.4 -56.1 -55.9 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 53 53 50 47 44 45 41 39 41 41 37 36 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -61 -60 -57 -65 -64 -46 -23 -51 -46 -55 -46 -78 -109 -108 -83 -66 200 MB DIV -28 3 -25 -36 -34 -19 -20 -10 -14 -2 -44 -52 -56 -36 -21 -30 -46 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 -3 -1 6 0 4 -2 -8 4 0 0 -5 -2 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1353 1295 1266 1255 1235 1221 1266 1349 1368 1494 1694 1882 2071 2203 2169 1879 1626 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.1 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.6 33.9 34.2 34.5 34.3 33.5 32.5 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.2 58.9 59.4 59.7 60.0 59.5 57.7 54.6 50.4 46.1 43.0 41.0 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 3 2 6 10 15 19 16 11 9 9 10 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 17 15 13 14 10 12 8 9 11 5 13 26 33 35 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 16. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.8 58.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/17/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.46 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 7.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 3.3% 4.4% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/17/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/17/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 39 41 45 48 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 34 35 35 36 37 39 43 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 40 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 19 21 23 24 25 25 26 27 29 33 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT