* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/17/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 34 36 37 37 38 39 40 43 45 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 34 36 37 37 38 39 40 43 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 30 31 30 30 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 18 24 23 12 8 11 22 30 34 30 16 13 7 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -5 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 -3 2 -3 1 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 22 45 23 40 63 55 52 312 266 277 314 359 14 8 317 305 310 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 135 135 133 128 126 128 127 131 131 138 148 151 151 153 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -56.8 -57.0 -56.4 -56.2 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 51 50 46 43 43 44 36 37 38 37 34 32 34 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -54 -51 -63 -63 -52 -33 -32 -47 -56 -53 -69 -106 -108 -102 -75 -70 200 MB DIV 4 -24 -38 -28 -33 -11 -4 -4 -2 -17 -43 -75 -36 -34 -25 -37 -34 700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 -2 0 6 1 0 -7 -1 1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 1 LAND (KM) 1294 1249 1228 1208 1190 1204 1273 1318 1366 1558 1738 1897 2022 2110 2094 1848 1671 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.2 33.3 33.4 33.6 34.0 34.4 34.8 35.1 34.7 33.9 32.8 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.2 59.9 60.2 60.5 60.4 58.9 56.3 52.2 47.5 43.4 41.2 40.1 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 4 8 14 19 19 14 8 7 9 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 14 16 16 16 5 9 10 6 11 11 12 31 35 32 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 18. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.0 59.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/17/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.46 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 10.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 2.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/17/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/17/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 34 36 37 37 38 39 40 43 45 48 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 29 32 34 35 35 36 37 38 41 43 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 29 31 32 32 33 34 35 38 40 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 22 24 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT