* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 25 29 33 36 38 41 46 50 52 52 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 25 29 33 36 38 41 46 50 52 52 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 21 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 15 12 7 12 4 11 17 12 8 3 4 10 11 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -3 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 28 38 68 101 115 85 142 308 324 338 304 349 260 321 323 333 322 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 141 143 137 133 132 132 137 136 135 135 136 137 135 134 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.8 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 49 47 46 48 46 44 47 47 44 43 43 47 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -56 -65 -64 -53 -39 -11 -26 -41 -50 -69 -88 -117 -93 -58 -62 -72 200 MB DIV -40 -24 -41 -29 -40 6 -16 -26 -17 4 -8 -6 -20 -22 -11 -10 -31 700-850 TADV -4 -2 1 4 5 0 2 0 1 1 -2 0 -1 2 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1288 1287 1273 1271 1290 1355 1443 1545 1593 1622 1638 1617 1642 1649 1629 1602 1592 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.8 32.7 32.8 32.5 32.3 32.1 32.0 32.2 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.3 60.7 60.8 60.5 59.9 58.4 56.2 54.0 52.5 51.4 50.9 50.8 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 4 5 8 10 8 6 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 14 12 16 14 9 8 16 17 16 18 18 17 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.7 60.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.52 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 15.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/18/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 21 25 29 33 36 38 41 46 50 52 52 52 54 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 20 24 28 32 35 37 40 45 49 51 51 51 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 21 25 29 32 34 37 42 46 48 48 48 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT