* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982026 09/18/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 42 46 51 53 54 54 54 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 42 46 51 53 54 54 54 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 30 34 38 43 46 48 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 18 9 9 7 6 12 12 6 6 10 13 11 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -6 -3 0 -1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 35 64 91 80 66 121 312 314 332 236 275 207 270 275 311 324 345 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 140 143 143 137 135 133 131 129 132 134 132 130 131 138 146 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.6 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.7 -56.7 -56.7 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 5 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 48 49 47 45 47 47 48 44 43 45 47 46 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -61 -58 -46 -40 -16 -16 -21 -47 -65 -73 -117 -108 -69 -78 -93 -91 200 MB DIV -30 -39 -26 -23 -27 -2 -2 -26 -20 -4 -6 -9 -16 -41 -45 -52 -47 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 5 2 0 2 2 4 5 -1 0 0 -6 -4 -10 -14 LAND (KM) 1279 1271 1276 1291 1318 1387 1491 1567 1600 1580 1529 1499 1532 1596 1694 1793 1866 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.6 32.5 32.3 32.0 32.0 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.6 60.9 60.7 60.2 59.7 58.1 56.2 54.9 53.9 53.1 52.1 50.5 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 0 3 4 5 8 7 5 3 5 6 7 5 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 12 17 17 16 15 7 5 13 18 17 14 23 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 26. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.7 60.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982026 INVEST 09/18/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.52 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 16.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.5% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7% 4.9% 3.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982026 INVEST 09/18/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982026 INVEST 09/18/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 42 46 51 53 54 54 54 57 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 27 31 35 37 40 44 49 51 52 52 52 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 26 30 32 35 39 44 46 47 47 47 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT