* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IONA CP012025 08/02/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 28 32 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 28 32 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 19 15 7 7 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 2 2 0 2 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 275 289 306 326 65 78 90 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 153 154 153 153 156 158 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 59 56 57 58 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -5 -5 -10 -25 -41 -21 -32 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 15 6 -4 -3 -7 18 -27 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2076 2188 2304 2411 2521 2721 2795 2627 2510 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.3 17.9 19.0 20.4 22.2 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.8 180.2 181.5 182.8 184.0 186.2 188.3 190.3 191.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 52 52 52 53 55 50 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 178.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012025 IONA 08/02/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.47 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.64 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.1% 9.6% 7.4% 0.0% 14.0% 13.6% 12.5% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 1.5% 3.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 2.3% 2.8% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012025 IONA 08/02/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##