* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912025 07/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 39 38 36 33 29 25 22 22 23 25 27 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 39 38 36 33 29 25 22 22 23 25 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 37 35 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 8 9 14 21 28 29 30 35 35 37 41 37 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 0 -2 0 2 -2 1 -1 0 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 13 353 310 299 289 276 250 253 264 276 267 259 239 226 228 254 321 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.3 27.0 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 142 137 132 128 126 129 136 140 147 148 150 152 151 153 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 56 55 53 51 51 46 46 46 47 53 54 57 55 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 41 38 38 20 22 9 7 1 -9 -12 -35 -42 -78 -126 -157 200 MB DIV 53 55 44 38 41 54 27 44 34 -4 7 32 27 26 39 33 18 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 8 -1 5 -6 -5 -4 -5 -10 0 -10 LAND (KM) 1581 1485 1384 1269 1140 855 573 432 588 741 923 1166 1451 1728 2007 2271 2488 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.3 144.3 145.4 146.6 149.5 152.9 156.4 160.1 163.7 167.1 170.3 173.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 16 17 18 18 17 16 16 17 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 17 16 15 12 10 11 13 19 27 29 30 31 29 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 142.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912025 INVEST 07/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.86 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 17.2% 16.9% 5.0% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 14.4% 11.3% 1.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912025 INVEST 07/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##