* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KELI CP022025 07/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 40 39 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 10 13 15 15 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -4 -7 -6 -8 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 22 340 306 305 288 302 271 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.8 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 145 145 142 133 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 52 50 50 53 53 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 46 38 31 21 6 0 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 25 32 38 42 30 28 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1324 1244 1169 1069 978 809 739 784 960 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.2 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.3 149.5 152.3 155.0 157.9 160.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 20 20 19 19 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 145.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.79 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 11.8% 9.1% 2.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 11.8% 8.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 7.4% 5.3% .9% .9% 0% .5% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##