* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 26 28 32 37 41 44 46 49 51 54 55 58 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 19 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 10 9 9 9 6 11 7 9 8 9 6 9 19 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 1 3 1 3 0 2 -8 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 302 330 333 310 305 325 277 248 238 198 182 224 335 346 336 335 328 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 137 136 130 130 130 129 129 123 134 132 131 132 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 124 121 121 116 116 117 116 117 112 123 119 115 112 112 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 6 5 7 6 7 7 9 8 12 13 17 15 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 77 78 79 80 80 81 76 70 64 61 54 50 52 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 66 73 79 90 114 113 85 83 69 48 -5 3 -7 16 21 35 200 MB DIV 56 57 53 46 26 40 34 47 51 43 64 4 3 -5 1 -10 59 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 3 3 3 -2 LAND (KM) 57 30 13 -4 -29 -94 -140 -177 -191 -185 -197 -207 -220 -266 -264 -253 -296 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.1 17.7 17.4 17.6 18.2 19.1 20.5 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.3 95.5 95.7 95.8 96.2 96.3 96.7 97.1 97.5 98.2 99.2 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 5 7 9 8 6 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 11 10 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 8 7 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.2 95.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 24.8% 18.1% 7.7% 1.6% 7.1% 18.5% 34.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 2.3% 8.3% 6.1% 2.6% 0.6% 2.4% 6.2% 12.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 20 21 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT