* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 28 32 38 42 44 47 49 50 51 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 20 22 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 30 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 35 39 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 6 6 10 7 10 8 17 28 29 34 41 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1 3 0 -2 -10 0 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 324 329 315 307 329 319 272 261 229 221 251 307 348 327 332 319 336 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.6 28.2 29.0 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 133 132 129 128 128 128 125 131 139 150 156 151 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 119 118 117 114 114 114 115 113 120 125 132 134 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 7 5 8 5 9 7 13 9 18 15 19 11 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 78 78 79 77 80 78 72 66 57 50 45 44 49 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 82 85 93 118 108 111 104 86 31 28 0 0 6 20 35 200 MB DIV 64 65 53 39 44 46 39 43 45 64 34 -12 -19 3 -6 30 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 1 -1 6 15 8 6 0 2 LAND (KM) 25 8 -5 -33 -57 -117 -162 -143 -99 -86 -55 -13 31 80 92 40 24 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.3 17.8 17.4 17.7 18.3 19.3 20.8 22.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.3 95.4 95.6 95.7 95.9 96.0 96.4 96.6 97.1 97.7 98.0 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 6 9 8 6 4 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 6 6 4 6 10 16 18 17 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. 29. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.9 95.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 26.4% 18.0% 8.7% 2.2% 10.2% 25.9% 42.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% Consensus: 2.6% 8.9% 6.1% 2.9% 0.7% 3.4% 8.7% 14.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 30 29 27 18HR AGO 20 19 18 20 21 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 27 28 27 26 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 25 26 25 24 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT