* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 42 47 50 53 57 59 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 20 24 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 55 59 61 61 62 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 29 31 31 30 30 30 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 18 18 18 20 12 7 4 12 16 18 20 23 25 24 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 5 1 3 2 5 4 9 8 8 4 2 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 76 65 59 70 70 66 94 248 227 235 231 229 231 256 246 259 243 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 135 135 119 118 113 109 109 111 113 118 124 122 120 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 136 135 135 116 114 109 103 102 102 104 108 114 110 107 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 68 69 69 69 66 63 61 57 52 49 46 46 43 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 53 52 42 51 69 93 89 77 56 57 46 39 21 -9 -46 -54 200 MB DIV 47 44 57 91 86 55 45 40 30 6 13 11 16 -17 -5 -4 20 700-850 TADV -12 -15 -20 -20 -18 -12 -15 -16 -16 -14 -2 10 10 15 18 10 6 LAND (KM) -47 57 185 346 452 700 969 1255 1543 1793 1973 2111 2241 2358 2434 2472 2302 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.6 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 15.0 16.9 18.5 20.0 21.4 24.0 26.5 29.1 31.7 34.0 35.7 37.2 38.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 16 15 15 13 13 13 12 10 8 9 10 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 8 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 3 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 37. 39. 39. 40. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 15.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 11.4% 5.9% 2.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/06/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 55 59 61 61 62 65 66 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 28 34 39 44 47 50 54 56 56 57 60 61 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 24 30 35 40 43 46 50 52 52 53 56 57 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT