* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 27 27 29 31 32 34 37 40 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 27 27 29 31 32 34 37 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 26 25 26 22 19 9 7 15 13 18 16 17 16 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 1 0 -1 1 6 10 6 3 5 2 2 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 97 117 132 142 160 187 218 206 214 236 243 254 254 276 275 252 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 116 114 111 108 108 108 109 111 113 115 113 115 120 122 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 111 108 105 102 100 100 101 102 103 105 103 103 107 108 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 65 62 58 55 55 51 51 48 47 43 40 36 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 60 68 74 51 47 41 25 11 -13 -28 -64 -89 -121 -121 -131 200 MB DIV 7 -3 -20 -22 -15 -2 1 9 1 1 -20 -12 -9 -9 0 -14 11 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 7 2 6 7 9 14 10 14 2 LAND (KM) 823 861 935 1026 1141 1364 1576 1781 1980 2168 2174 2119 2084 2072 2043 1949 1823 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.0 25.5 26.2 27.0 28.0 30.0 31.9 33.8 35.8 37.7 39.6 41.3 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 25.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/07/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 27 27 29 31 32 34 37 40 42 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 22 23 24 26 26 28 30 31 33 36 39 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 20 21 22 24 24 26 28 29 31 34 37 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT