* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 37 42 45 42 36 33 31 32 28 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 37 42 45 42 36 33 31 32 28 25 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 26 26 27 30 31 31 31 30 30 32 33 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 42 46 40 38 37 30 30 26 29 20 13 16 25 35 32 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -6 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 -2 -2 0 -5 0 -3 6 1 SHEAR DIR 264 267 276 274 262 259 242 257 296 320 335 306 239 261 287 283 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.9 27.0 27.2 26.7 27.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 141 135 129 127 128 132 119 121 117 130 120 121 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 116 116 111 106 104 105 106 94 95 94 105 100 103 105 108 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -56.9 -57.1 -57.2 -57.6 -57.7 -57.3 -56.5 -55.8 -55.2 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 4 3 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 59 61 62 62 57 60 57 50 42 37 37 41 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 4 4 5 8 11 9 8 9 7 7 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -63 -67 -47 -28 -8 23 -4 -22 -61 -32 -68 -58 -85 -66 -54 -9 200 MB DIV 62 58 30 17 37 30 37 -22 -9 0 -2 -1 2 -6 0 -23 -17 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 -1 0 3 6 5 15 3 6 6 0 -1 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 124 142 145 202 242 300 296 216 127 111 104 111 214 365 572 803 1055 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.6 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.7 33.3 34.3 35.3 35.6 35.5 35.7 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.5 77.9 77.2 76.4 75.7 74.4 73.8 74.0 74.4 74.5 74.6 74.5 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 6 4 1 0 3 6 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 25 36 30 19 16 30 45 18 26 14 40 18 7 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 1. -8. -16. -22. -28. -30. -31. -36. -41. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 1. -2. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 17. 20. 17. 11. 8. 6. 7. 3. 0. -0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.2 78.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/07/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 35 37 42 45 42 36 33 31 32 28 25 25 24 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 34 39 42 39 33 30 28 29 25 22 22 21 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 28 33 36 33 27 24 22 23 19 16 16 15 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 27 24 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT